Global Patterns of Oil Trade

Oil Trade: Highest Volume, Highest Value

There is more trade internationally in oil than in anything else. This is true whether one measures trade by how much of a good is moved (volume), by its value, or by the carrying capacity needed to move it. All measures are important and for different reasons. Volume provides insights about whether markets are over- or under-supplied and whether the infrastructure is adequate to accommodate the required flow. Value allows governments and economists to assess patterns of international trade and balance of trade and balance of payments. Carrying capacity allows the shipping industry to assess how many tankers are required and on what routes. Transportation and storage play a critical additional role here. They are not just the physical link between the importers and the exporters and, therefore, between producers and refiners, refiners and marketers, and marketers and consumers; their associated costs are a primary factor in determining the pattern of world trade.

Distance: The Nearest Market First

Generally, crude oil and petroleum products flow to the markets that provide the highest value to the supplier. Everything else being equal, oil moves to the nearest market first, because that has the lowest transportation cost and therefore provides the supplier with the highest net revenue, or in oil market terminology, the highest netback. If this market cannot absorb all the oil, the balance moves to the next closest one, and the next and so on, incurring progressively higher transportation costs, until all the oil is placed.

The recent growth in United States dependence on its Western Hemisphere neighbors is an illustration of this "nearer-is-better" syndrome. For instance, Western Hemisphere sources now supply over half the United States import volume (see graph), much of it on voyages of less than a week. Another quarter comes from elsewhere in the area called the Atlantic Basin, those countries on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean. This oil, coming especially that which comes from the North Sea and Africa, and takes just 2-3 weeks to reach the United States, boosts the so-called short-haul share of U.S. imports to over three-quarters. Most North Sea and North and West African crude oils stay in the Atlantic Basin, moving to Europe or North America on routes that rarely take over 20 days. In contrast, voyage times to Asia for just the nearest of these, the West African crude oils, would be over 30 days to Singapore, rising to nearly 40 for Japan. Not surprisingly, therefore, most of Asia’s oil comes instead from the Middle East, only 20-30 days away.

Mexico and Venezuela have consciously helped the trend toward short-haul shipments. They pro-actively took the strategic decision to make as large and as profitable a market as possible for poor quality crudes, since their reserves are unusually biased toward those hard-to-place grades. Both countries therefore targeted their nearest markets, the U.S. Gulf Coast and the Caribbean, for joint venture refinery investments. They began with refineries that had traditionally run their crudes, and then with refineries that might be upgraded to do so. This policy has turned poor quality crudes into the preferred crude at these sites, significantly increasing the crude oil self-sufficiency of the Western Hemisphere.

Quality, Industry Structure, and Governments

In practice, trade flows do not always follow the simple "nearest first" pattern. Refinery configurations, product demand mix, product quality specifications –- all three of which tie into quality -- and politics can all change the rankings.

Different markets frequently place different values on particular grades of oil. Thus, a low sulfur diesel is worth more in the United States, where the maximum allowable sulfur is 0.05 percent by weight, than in Africa, where the maximum can be 10 to 20 times higher. Similarly, African crudes -- low in sulfur -- are worth relatively more in Asia, where they may allow a refiner to meet tighter sulfur limits in the region without investing in refinery upgrades. Such differences in valuing quality can be sufficient to overcome transportation cost disadvantages, as the relatively recent establishment of a significant trade in long-distance African crudes to Asia shows. The cost of moving oil into a particular market can be further distorted from the principle of nearest first by government policies such as tariffs.