Oil Market Analysts Issue Dire Warnings

While this year's record high oil prices are unlikely to come down in the near future, analysts are warning the world's traditional and emerging economic powers to curb consumption, saying that at the current rate, proven reserves will only meet demand up to 2030. "The current model (of consumption) is suicidal," says the energy minister of Venezuela, an OPEC member.

While this year's record high oil prices are unlikely to come down in the near future, analysts are warning the world's traditional and emerging economic powers to curb consumption, saying that at the current rate, proven reserves will only meet demand up to 2030.

"The current model (of consumption) is suicidal," Venezuelan Energy Minister Rafael Ramírez recently told journalists. "The United States, for example, will use up its oil reserves in 10 years, and after that it will go after its rivers, lakes and forests."

This month, Democratic Party lawmakers in the U.S. Senate narrowly blocked a Republican-led bill that would have allowed drilling for oil in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, which has an estimated 10 billion barrels in reserves.

The United States devours one out of four of the 84 million barrels of oil consumed daily around the world, and one out of two litres of gasoline.

But the emerging powers are steadily closing the consumption gap. In India, less than 200,000 new cars were sold annually two decades ago, compared to 802,000 in 2004.

"Since oil began to be drilled in 1859, the world has consumed 900 billion barrels - nearly half of the planet's reserves (according to an oil industry expert quoted by the Wall Street Journal), which means we'll have oil for another 50 years at the most," said Francisco Mieres, a professor of postgraduate studies on the oil economy at Venezuela's Central University.

But because consumption is increasing every year, driven by economic growth rates like those of China - which have ranged between seven and 11 percent a year - "oil will perhaps only last until 2030, even including reserves like Alaska's and the Athabasca tar sands" in Alberta, Canada, Mieres told IPS.

That long-term outlook will also be affected by more immediate political factors, "like the difficulties faced by the United States in the Middle East, rebellious governments like those of Venezuela and (the future administration of leftist president-elect Evo Morales in) Bolivia, or the radicalisation of Iran's leadership," he added.

On the economic front, Mieres said these developments would discourage investment by large corporations.

He also mentioned the competition between China, India and other emerging powers to get their hands on the available oil resources, and the real or expected decline in deposits in the North Sea, the Caspian Sea, Mexico or Siberia in Russia.

"The era of cheap oil is over," is a phrase repeated over and over by experts like Ramírez, Mieres or Colin Campbell, the founder of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas (ASPO).

Global Patterns of Oil Trade

Oil Trade: Highest Volume, Highest Value

There is more trade internationally in oil than in anything else. This is true whether one measures trade by how much of a good is moved (volume), by its value, or by the carrying capacity needed to move it. All measures are important and for different reasons. Volume provides insights about whether markets are over- or under-supplied and whether the infrastructure is adequate to accommodate the required flow. Value allows governments and economists to assess patterns of international trade and balance of trade and balance of payments. Carrying capacity allows the shipping industry to assess how many tankers are required and on what routes. Transportation and storage play a critical additional role here. They are not just the physical link between the importers and the exporters and, therefore, between producers and refiners, refiners and marketers, and marketers and consumers; their associated costs are a primary factor in determining the pattern of world trade.

Distance: The Nearest Market First

Generally, crude oil and petroleum products flow to the markets that provide the highest value to the supplier. Everything else being equal, oil moves to the nearest market first, because that has the lowest transportation cost and therefore provides the supplier with the highest net revenue, or in oil market terminology, the highest netback. If this market cannot absorb all the oil, the balance moves to the next closest one, and the next and so on, incurring progressively higher transportation costs, until all the oil is placed.

The recent growth in United States dependence on its Western Hemisphere neighbors is an illustration of this "nearer-is-better" syndrome. For instance, Western Hemisphere sources now supply over half the United States import volume (see graph), much of it on voyages of less than a week. Another quarter comes from elsewhere in the area called the Atlantic Basin, those countries on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean. This oil, coming especially that which comes from the North Sea and Africa, and takes just 2-3 weeks to reach the United States, boosts the so-called short-haul share of U.S. imports to over three-quarters. Most North Sea and North and West African crude oils stay in the Atlantic Basin, moving to Europe or North America on routes that rarely take over 20 days. In contrast, voyage times to Asia for just the nearest of these, the West African crude oils, would be over 30 days to Singapore, rising to nearly 40 for Japan. Not surprisingly, therefore, most of Asia’s oil comes instead from the Middle East, only 20-30 days away.

Mexico and Venezuela have consciously helped the trend toward short-haul shipments. They pro-actively took the strategic decision to make as large and as profitable a market as possible for poor quality crudes, since their reserves are unusually biased toward those hard-to-place grades. Both countries therefore targeted their nearest markets, the U.S. Gulf Coast and the Caribbean, for joint venture refinery investments. They began with refineries that had traditionally run their crudes, and then with refineries that might be upgraded to do so. This policy has turned poor quality crudes into the preferred crude at these sites, significantly increasing the crude oil self-sufficiency of the Western Hemisphere.

Quality, Industry Structure, and Governments

In practice, trade flows do not always follow the simple "nearest first" pattern. Refinery configurations, product demand mix, product quality specifications –- all three of which tie into quality -- and politics can all change the rankings.

Different markets frequently place different values on particular grades of oil. Thus, a low sulfur diesel is worth more in the United States, where the maximum allowable sulfur is 0.05 percent by weight, than in Africa, where the maximum can be 10 to 20 times higher. Similarly, African crudes -- low in sulfur -- are worth relatively more in Asia, where they may allow a refiner to meet tighter sulfur limits in the region without investing in refinery upgrades. Such differences in valuing quality can be sufficient to overcome transportation cost disadvantages, as the relatively recent establishment of a significant trade in long-distance African crudes to Asia shows. The cost of moving oil into a particular market can be further distorted from the principle of nearest first by government policies such as tariffs.